Rates. Court. Compensation
U.S. companies paid over $160 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court declared illegal in February. Now it's time to return the money — at least theoretically.
Today, the U.S. Customs Department is launching a special online portal, CAPE, through which importers can officially apply for refunds. It sounds simple. But those who know the system well are far from optimistic.
"The government will do everything it can to complicate this process," says lawyer Matthew Seligman of Grayhawk Law. In his opinion, despite the clear court decision, the bureaucratic machine is unlikely to rush.
Who and how much can receive
According to public sources, Walmart appears to be the biggest winner – Citi analysts estimate its refund at $10.2 billion. Target could get back $2.2 billion, Nike – about a billion. Also in line are Kohl's with $550 million, Home Depot – $540 million, Gap – $400 million.
What will companies do with this money? Most executives respond cautiously: share buybacks, debt repayment, or simply replenishing reserves. Walmart CFO John David Rainey explicitly stated that he does not expect a quick result – the process, he said, is "too complicated."
A trap for those who raised prices
There's also an unexpected risk. Many companies at one time passed on costs to customers by raising retail prices. If they now receive refunds, someone might ask: shouldn't the overpayment be returned to consumers? A Harvard Business School study estimated that passing tariffs on to buyers added almost 0.76 percentage points to the consumer price index by October 2025.
"What is the likelihood that a company will be sued by its own customers?" rhetorically asks Stephan Reisinger of Norton Rose Fulbright.
Tariffs may return
Even if refunds are made, the government does not seem to be abandoning its protectionist course. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the administration is exploring the possibility of introducing new tariffs – this time through the Section 301 mechanism, which allows punishing trading partners for "unfair" practices. According to him, new tariffs could take effect as early as July.
Importers hear this and are nervous. "We are really concerned," admitted Eugene Laney, president of the American Association of Exporters and Importers. However, he believes that new tariffs are unlikely to reach the level of the canceled ones.
For now – the portal opens, a queue of applications, and a big question: how willingly will the state return what the court ordered it to return.
What this means for the dollar: a look at DXY
The return of $160 billion is not just an accounting event for retailers. For the foreign exchange market, it is a potential catalyst that can affect the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in both the short and medium term.
Short-term pressure — likely weakening
In the coming weeks after the portal opens, the dollar may experience moderate downward pressure. The reason is simple: companies, after receiving refunds, will convert some of the funds into foreign currencies – for settlements with foreign suppliers, hedging, or reinvestment in international operations. Walmart, Nike, and other global players traditionally keep a significant portion of their expenses in euros, yen, and yuan. Additional pressure on DXY may also be created by the market signal itself: the abolition of tariffs is perceived as a weakening of the protectionist course, which reduces the "reliability factor" of the dollar as a safe haven.
Medium-term scenario — uncertainty keeps the market tense
Over the three-to-six-month horizon, the picture is more complex. If the administration indeed introduces new tariffs through the Section 301 mechanism by July, the market may re-evaluate the situation – and the dollar will recover some of its lost positions. Trade tensions traditionally support demand for the American currency as a defensive asset.
At the same time, massive refunds can stimulate consumer spending and revitalize corporate balance sheets, which theoretically supports U.S. economic growth – a factor in favor of the dollar. But here arises the inflationary paradox: if companies keep the money returned by the state without lowering prices for consumers, inflationary pressure will persist – and the Fed will have less reason to ease monetary policy, which will support bond yields and, consequently, the dollar.
Thus, in the short term, DXY is under volatile pressure; in the medium term, everything depends on whether tariffs return in a new form and how the Fed reacts to inflation data in the coming periods.