The end of April 2026 became one of the most important moments for the foreign exchange market, as several key central banks made decisions amid high geopolitical uncertainty, expensive energy, and the risk of renewed inflationary pressure.

The main market consensus is simple: most central banks should not change rates. But the real focus is not on the decision itself, but on the tone of communication. The market wants to understand whether central banks are still thinking about future easing, or whether the energy shock is forcing them to return to a tougher stance.

 

Federal Reserve: Dollar between a resilient economy and the risk of new inflation

 

Previous Decisions

In March 2026, the Fed kept the rate in the range of 3.50–3.75%. This was the second consecutive pause after the previous rate-cutting cycle in 2025. According to the FOMC, open market operations were aimed at maintaining the rate within this range. Before this, the Fed had already transitioned from an active rate-cutting cycle to a wait-and-see mode. There were several cuts in 2025, but in 2026, the central bank became more cautious due to residual inflationary pressure and geopolitical risks. 

Consensus for April 29

The baseline scenario is no change in rates. Reuters notes that the Fed is expected to keep short-term rates unchanged at its April 29-30 meeting, as policymakers weigh the impact of the war in Iran, high oil prices, and inflationary risks. 

Current US Risks

For the US, the key risk is not economic weakness, but a re-acceleration of inflation through the energy channel. If high oil and fuel prices start to translate into broader consumer prices, the Fed will be forced to keep policy tight for longer. The second risk is the labor market. If it weakens sharply, the Fed will have an argument for cutting rates. But if employment remains robust and inflation does not return to target, the dollar finds support.

Interesting Detail

The Fed is currently in a difficult position: it no longer wants to appear too hawkish, but it also cannot afford to send a dovish signal if the energy shock raises inflationary expectations again. That is why the baseline scenario is a hawkish hold, meaning no change in rates, but a cautiously hawkish tone.

Bank of Canada: Canadian dollar between oil, weak growth, and trade risks

 

Previous Decisions

The BoC has kept the rate at 2.25% since the end of 2025. The official decision history shows: March 18, 2026 — no change, January 28, 2026 — no change, December 10, 2025 — no change. The previous cut was on October 29, 2025, when the rate was lowered from 2.50% to 2.25%. 

Consensus for April 29

The baseline scenario is no change in rates at 2.25%. The WSJ writes that the BoC is expected to keep the rate unchanged despite inflationary risks from the Middle East and high oil prices. 

Current Risks for Canada

Canada has a different set of problems than the US. Its economy is more sensitive to household debt, mortgage rates, and domestic consumption. If rates remain high for too long, it puts pressure on housing, credit, and consumer activity. But Canada is also a commodity-based economy. High oil prices can support the CAD, but simultaneously raise inflationary risks. Therefore, the BoC does not have a simple choice: a weak economy calls for softer policy, but energy inflation forces caution.

What is important for the market

The CAD will react to two signals:

whether the BoC still sees room for future cuts

whether the BoC acknowledges that inflationary risks may require a longer pause or even a tougher stance

Interesting Detail

For the CAD, the BoC's decision is not always the main driver. During such periods, the Canadian dollar may react more to oil, the USD, and global risk sentiment than to the rate itself.

European Central Bank: Euro between weak growth and the risk of stagflation

 

Previous Decisions

In March 2026, the ECB kept rates unchanged: deposit rate 2.00%, main refinancing rate 2.15%, marginal lending facility 2.40%. 

In February 2026, the ECB also kept rates unchanged, confirming a data-dependent approach and a meeting-by-meeting decision-making process. 

Consensus for April 30

The baseline scenario is no change in rates. The market expects a pause, but the main focus will be on whether Lagarde emphasizes inflation due to energy or talks more about weak economic growth.

Current Risks for the Eurozone

The Eurozone has, perhaps, the most complex macro-profile among major economies. It is vulnerable to energy shocks, has weak growth, and fragmented economic dynamics between countries. Trading Economics notes that the war in the Middle East has created both upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth for the ECB. This is essentially a classic stagflationary risk. 

What is important for the market

For the EUR, three things are important:

whether the ECB acknowledges that inflation may remain above target for longer

whether Lagarde hints at no rapid cuts

whether there will be an emphasis on economic weakness

A hawkish tone supports the EUR. A dovish tone, especially if there is an emphasis on weak lending and economic activity, could pressure the euro.

Interesting Detail

The ECB is not just deciding on the rate. It is actually assessing whether the energy shock is temporary or capable of breaking the disinflationary trend. If inflationary expectations start to rise, the ECB will not be able to sound dovish, even if the economy is weak.

Bank of England: Pound between services inflation, weak demand, and political noise

 

Previous Decisions

The BoE kept the Bank Rate at 3.75% in March 2026. Prior to this, the rate was also maintained at 3.75% in February 2026. 

In March, the decision was unanimous, with energy and potential second-round effects—i.e., the pass-through of higher costs into wages, services prices, and broader inflation—being the main risk factors. 

Consensus for April 30

The baseline scenario is no change in rates at 3.75%. Reuters writes that the market expects a BoE pause, with investors focusing on comments regarding the economic impact of the war in Iran and inflation. 

Current Risks for the United Kingdom

 

The UK has a very sensitive inflationary structure. Even when headline inflation slows, the services sector and wages can remain sticky. This limits the BoE's ability to quickly cut rates. A separate factor is political uncertainty and weak consumer demand. If the economy weakens, the BoE will have an argument for future cuts. But if energy prices again raise inflationary expectations, the central bank will be forced to delay easing.

What is important for the market

For GBP, it is important:

whether a voice for a rate hike emerges

whether the BoE maintains the idea of future gradual easing

whether services inflation remains a key problem

Reuters notes that some analysts expect only one MPC member to support a hike, while the majority will remain cautious. 

Interesting Detail

The pound often reacts not only to the rate but also to the balance of votes. If the vote shows more hawkish members, GBP could strengthen even without a rate change.

Bank of Japan: no longer a dovish BoJ, but a "hawkish hold"

 

Previous Decisions

The BoJ kept the rate at 0.75% in April 2026. This decision was expected, but it is important that three of the nine board members voted for a hike to 1.00%. 

In March and January 2026, the rate was also at 0.75%, according to the economic release calendar. 

Consensus and Actual Decision

The consensus was no change in rates. The actual decision confirmed the pause, but the internal split made this decision hawkish. This is no longer the classic dovish BoJ. It is a central bank gradually moving towards normalization after decades of ultra-loose policy.

Current Risks for Japan

Japan is highly dependent on imported energy, so high oil prices directly worsen conditions for households and businesses. A weak yen further amplifies imported inflation. Reuters notes that Japanese households continue to expect price increases in the coming years, which maintains pressure on the BoJ for further rate hikes. 

What is important for the market

For JPY, the main thing is not the current rate, but the likelihood of the next hike. After the 6-3 vote, the market is starting to seriously price in the risk of a hike as early as June or July. Reuters also reported that most economists in an April survey expected the BoJ to raise rates to 1.00% by the end of June. 

Interesting Detail

The BoJ is the only central bank in this group that is not facing the question of "when to cut rates?" It is facing the question of "when to continue normalization?" That is why JPY has a distinct profile: it can strengthen not due to risk-off, but due to rising expectations of future rate hikes.

Overall market picture

The main conclusion: global central banks are entering a complex pause mode.

The Fed does not want to rush with cuts due to inflation.

The BoC balances between weak growth and an oil shock.

The ECB faces the risk of stagflation.

The BoE fears sticky services inflation and second-round effects.

The BoJ is gradually moving towards further rate hikes.

For the foreign exchange market, this means that the biggest edge will not be in forecasting the rate itself, but in understanding the difference between policy trajectories.